Looking Down Ballot in Orange County...

I was hoping to dive into the geographic spread of Orange County’s Election Results today (I am curious to see which cities swung most heavily to Trump), but Orange County still isn’t done counting votes. (According to the OC Registrar of Voters, there are still an estimated 39,655 ballots left to count.)

BUT, we still have some data to chew on.

HOW IS TRUMP DOING? As of today, Trump is now losing Orange County by a little under three points, 49.74% to 47.07%. He has lost his lead since the last newsletter (the late vote drops have trended Democrat), but as I wrote then, even a three-point loss is a major improvement from his eight point loss in 2016 and nine point loss in 2020.

Trump likely got a big boost from the more heavily Latino and Asian parts of the county along with white suburban voters slightly swinging back his way (as we discussed in last week’s newsletter, this was a national trend), but it will be hard to check out until the final results are certified.

Unfortunately, it’s looking like the swing in Trump’s direction didn’t translate down ballot to Orange County’s competitive House races.

LET’S GO DOWN BALLOT… We had some disappointing high-profile losses here. In California’s 47th District, Katie Porter’s old seat consisting of Irvine, Costa Mesa, and the beach cities from Seal Beach down to Laguna, Republican Scott Baugh is losing to Democrat Dave Min by 3.4%. That’s roughly the same margin by which he lost last time. (Baugh conceded last week).

It’s clear that, among other things, Republicans have a fundraising problem in the 47th District. Dave Min out-raised Scott Baugh by nearly $2 million this cycle ($6 million to Baugh’s $4 million); outside groups supporting Min outspent Baugh allies by $3 million (see chart below).

• While not as lopsided as 2022, this is the second cycle in a row that Democrats have poured more money into the 47th District than Republicans.

Money isn’t everything (just ask Kamala Harris where her $1 billion went) but it’s a critical factor. Moreover, Dave Min will have even more financial resources at his disposal as an incumbent if he runs again in 2026.

Meanwhile, in California’s 45th District, Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steel is trailing Democrat challenger Derek Tran by just over 300 votes (as of now it’s the closest House race in the entire country). Steel won re-election in 2022 by five points in this district, which includes a serpentine slice of northern Orange County along with a small pocket of neighboring Los Angeles County. If Steel goes down, this would be a Democrat pick-up of a GOP-held seat.

• Both campaigns are focusing on “curing” ballots (the process of helping a voter whose ballot was initially denied over something like a mismatched signature remedy whatever was wrong with it), which could make the difference with such a thin margin.

It may be tempting to blame blue Los Angeles County for dragging Steel down, but a quick look at the county-level results (see visual below) show the opposite: the LA-portion of Steel’s district actually swung four points in her favor, while the larger OC-portion swung nearly seven points away from her. She’s currently only winning Orange County by 1.5 points.

🤔 Was Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, able to pick up enough Republican-leaning Vietnamese voters in Orange County to drive him over the finish line? (Little Saigon between Garden Grove and Westminster has the largest community of Vietnamese immigrants in the United States).

• Tran made his family story and background a key message in his campaign.

• As a sign of how important this issue was in the district, Steel and Tran spent the final weeks clashing over whether Tran is truly fluent in Vietnamese.

It will be revealing to see how Trump performed in both CA-45 and CA-47 once the results are certified, which will give us an early glimpse into whether the GOP candidates had their own issues or if there were broader trends working against them. Either way, with margins this small, expect both parties to view them as battlegrounds in the next election.

NEW MAN FOR NEWMAN’S SEAT? There have been a few bright spots for California Republicans at the state level. The GOP is expected to flip up to three seats in the state legislature, one of which is the 37th Senate District in Orange County where Republican Steven Choi is currently leading incumbent Democrat State Sen. Josh Newman by 6,000 votes.

• Read more —> Politico has a new piece out today diving into what they are calling the “red ripple” hitting Sacramento; the other two GOP pick ups are Latino-majority Assembly Districts in the Inland Empire. 

This is the first time Newman has had to run for re-election in the new district since the lines were redrawn in 2020, and he was considered the most vulnerable Senate Democrat running for re-election in 2024.

• Friendly fire? The Democrat union AFSCME spent $700,000 last month attacking Newman, because he refused to support one of their policy initiatives, in what was viewed as a threat to other Democrat legislators to get in line (one Democrat leader called the union “morally bankrupt” and blamed them for driving up GOP turnout.)

Steven Choi has been a fixture in Orange County politics for twenty years, serving two terms as the mayor of Irvine and then sitting in the state Assembly.

HERE’S A PROPOSITION… California Republicans also scored a series of big wins on the ballot propositions that were up this year. In fact, conservatives won on almost every major measure. Let’s run through a few of them …

Proposition 5 | Under California law, local governments need voter approval from two thirds of those voting to borrow money. It’s a high bar designed to ensure any local borrowing has significant consensus from the community (after all, it would be largely property owners who ultimately foot the bill). Prop. 5 wanted to amend the state Constitution and lower that threshold to 55% to make it easier for cities to borrow and spend. Fiscal conservatives opposed it on grounds that it would lead to tax hikes on homeowners and increase local debt. It failed, with 55% of voters (appropriately) voting no.

Proposition 32 | This measure would have increased California’s mandatory minimum wage to $18 an hour, despite a state law that already ties the minimum wage to inflation and will bump it to $16.50 in January. Restaurant groups and grocery stores argued it would drive up prices in already over-inflated economy. It narrowly failed 51% to 49%.

Proposition 33 | The Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995 puts limits on cities and counties seeking to implement rent control; Proposition 33 would have repealed the law and given cities significantly more control on what properties they can enact rent control on. Opponents said it would lead to loss property tax revenue for cities and would de-incentivize developers from building new housing which our state sorely needs. California voters agreed, as it failed 60% to 40%.

Proposition 36 | This was the most watched ballot measure in California this year. Prop. 36 enacts stricter penalties on repeat theft crimes, making theft a felony after two previous offenses. It’s a direct response to the disastrous progressive, pro-crime policies that have plagued cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles that refuse to prosecute theft and have seen waves of criminals stealing merchandise in broad daylight. It passed in a landslide win, 69% to 31%, and sends a strong message to progressives that even in blue California their pro-crime policies are toxic.

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

🍊 Republican state Senator Janet Nguyen overwhelmingly won her race for a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors, filling the seat emptied by resigned GOP Supervisor Andrew Do who recently pled guilty to bribery charges.

🔥 Newport Beach Mayor Will O’Neill appeared on Fox News Faulkner Focus this week to discuss the recent Coast Guard detainment of illegal immigrants off the city’s coast and rip California’s sanctuary policies around illegal immigration.

🤯 A chain reaction of car crashes on the 405 Freeway in Costa Mesa Tuesday evening killed 1, injured 5, and shutdown the southbound lanes with an accident scene that spanned a quarter of a mile.