Some Thoughts on Trump's Historic Win

What a win!! What a week!! (And also, happy Friday and welcome to your latest edition of the OC Conservative Brief!) 😃

Let’s dive right in. Now that the dust is beginning to settle, the depth and width of President Trump’s historic win Tuesday night is taking shape. We’ll get to election results in Orange County below, but let’s talk about the national election results for just a minute. There is an endless amount that could be shared and discussed, but some exciting and significant points that stick out to me:

THE ‘OBAMA GENERATION’ IS GONE. Remember in 2008 when President Obama won young millennial voters aged 18-29 by 30 points? Those voters are now in the 30-44 age bracket … and according to exit polls, Harris only won them by four points. The Obama Generation is gone. Gen Z voters followed in their elder millennials’ footsteps and only voted for Harris by five points.

Harris’ shallow pandering to young people didn’t work. This is a devastating collapse for the Democrats’ electoral coalition and for their hopes that the liberal “youth vote” would eventually deliver them an enduring Democratic majority. Trump’s messaging around the economy, border security, and other themes clearly resonated with young people.

Look at the chart below. This is the narrowest age divide in a presidential election in decades, which I’d argue is healthy for democracy.

A similar story can be told about the gender gap. Harris won women by 7 points, but Trump won men by 11. Just like with the youth vote, the assumption that women would come out in droves to support Harris in overwhelming numbers due to abortion simply did not pan out. Again, Trump’s messaging on other issues had strong appeal.

END OF IDENTITY POLITICS? Another incredible development from Tuesday was Trump’s historically strong performance with Hispanic and Black voters. This has been a trend in the Trump era, but Tuesday night’s win made clear that it’s only accelerating.

Trump won 42% of the Hispanic vote - a historic performance for a Republican - and only lost Hispanic men by three points. Trump doubled his support among Black voters as well.

• READ MORE ➡️ Democrat demographer Ruy Teixeira, who first gained fame in the Obama years for predicting emerging Democrat dominance but has since recanted, has a new piece up called “The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition.”

These kinds of numbers are unsustainable for the Democrats’ coalition and make the math incredibly hard for Democrats to win. These voters could, of course, shift back.

But here’s the thing: Tuesday was a reminder that Democrats can’t rely on shallow, race-based identity politics to win these voters over. Their assumptions that Hispanic voters would be repelled by Trump’s hawkish views on immigration and naturally flock to Harris were incorrect, as was their strategy that Black voters would rally around Harris simply because she is Black and because they have always done so. Trump aggressively played to the two issues that voters, including Hispanic and Black voters, repeatedly told pollsters they cared about, that also happened to be his two biggest strengths: the economy and border security.

The results speak for themselves.

Running this strong among Hispanic and Black voters (and young voters as mentioned above) chips away at the Democrats’ coalition across-the-board and opens up new areas of the country for Republicans to compete. Which gets us to our last point…

BLUE STATES LESS BLUE. Trump’s gains among all of these voter demographics, while holding his own among his base, sent a shockwave through the electoral map. Yes, he won all of the seven battleground states which are now colored a beautiful shade of red. But peek behind the red-and-blue map and you’ll see some shocking numbers.

Trump only lost blue New Jersey by five points. He won Florida by 13 points, but only lost New York by 12, meaning that New York is now more “competitive” than Florida (imagine saying that even just ten years ago). Texas, which Democrats once hoped would soon turn blue, has now been pushed even farther away from their grasp (Trump won it by 14). In total, 49 states shifted in Trump’s direction compared to 2020.

Check out the graphic below, courtesy of the New York Times, for a visualization of what that shift looks like (red arrows are shifts towards Trump from 2020). By the way, they haven’t visually recorded the shifts in California yet because our state is not yet done counting votes.

This is important because it opens the door for Republicans to win the national popular vote - a prize that has evaded Republicans for most of the past thirty five years. As of this morning, Trump is currently leading the popular vote with 50.7%, an exact match to the last time a Republican (George W. Bush) won the popular vote in 2004.

President Trump and Republicans should be incredibly proud not just of their victory, but how deep it goes. It shows signs of durability and denies Democrats the argument that Trump won on a fluke. The key moving forward will be for the GOP to keep these voters engaged and on our side, both via the agenda they fight for in Washington and the campaigns they run back home.

Speaking of home, let’s take a look at the results here in Orange County…

BATTLEGROUND ORANGE COUNTY. We won’t get a complete rundown of the results in California for at least another week, due to the fact that California allows late-arriving mail ballots to be counted as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. There are an estimated 300,000+ ballots left to count in Orange County. We’ll see more of these “ballot drops” added to the results every day.

At the moment, these late ballots seem to be trending Democrat, which isn’t a good sign for Republicans in tight races. They could feasibly track back the other way. You can track Orange County election results at OCVote.com.

That being said, here’s where things stand now.

Donald Trump is narrowly winning Orange County by just 5,000 votes after having lost it by eight points in 2016 and nine points in 2020. Even if he ends up losing it again, this is still a dramatic comeback and likely due to both suburban voters shifting back towards Trump and his strong performance with Hispanic voters, which would give him a boost in traditional Democrat strongholds like Santa Ana.

We’ll know more about the geographic spread of Trump’s win once the final results are certified.

Looking at the battleground House races, here’s how things stand as of Friday morning:

• CA-40: Republican incumbent Young Kim has defeated Democrat Joe Kerr by 13 points. The race has been called.

• CA-45: Republican incumbent Michelle Steel is up nearly four points over Democrat Derek Tran, with a 10,000 vote lead. This race hasn’t been called yet.

• CA-47: Republican Scott Baugh is narrowly leading Democrat Dave Min 50.1% to 49.9%, with a lead of just over 500 votes. This race hasn’t been called yet.

• CA-49: Democrat incumbent Mike Levin is narrowly leading Republican Matt Gunderson 51% to 49%, or 5,000 votes. This race hasn’t been called yet.

Three of Orange County’s four battleground House races are still too close to call, and with GOP control of the House on the line, they matter. I am loathe to make predictions, as there are still a significant chunk of outstanding ballots left to count. But I’ll say this: Scott Baugh and Matt Gunderson absolutely need the next few ballot drops to lean their way if they want signs they can pull through. Michelle Steel is in a better position - that 10,000 vote lead is a nice cushion - but again, without knowing how heavy Democrat or Republican the remaining ballots are, it’s hard to predict.

Remember, CA-47 and CA-49 are Democrat-held seats, so a Republican win in either would be a +1 pick-up. If Steel loses in CA-45, that would be a Republican -1 loss in their overall math for control for the House.

Looking at the state level, Republican Steven Choi is currently leading Democrat State Sen. Josh Newman by four points in the 37th Senate District. This would be a Republican flip if Choi pulls through.

Meanwhile, almost all of Orange County’s Republican Assembly members - Phillip Chen (AD-59), Tri Ta (AD-70), Diane Dixon (AD-72), and Kate Sanchez (AD-71) - are on track for comfortable re-election, as is Democrat incumbent Cottie Petrie-Norris (AD-73). Republican Assemblymember Lauren Davies (AD-74) is in a tighter race, currently leading by just four points. You can track California Assembly and Senate races here.

More updates later as the results become clearer … we’ll also try to dive into some of the California ballot propositions that passed. For now, enjoy the victory and enjoy the weekend!

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

👮 Proposition 36, the California ballot initiative to reverse many of the Gascon-style progressive pro-crime policies around theft, overwhelmingly passed on Tuesday.

🤡 California Governor Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that he is calling a special session of the state legislature in December to prepare the state to “fight” President Trump.

🚗 Toyota has announced that California’s electric vehicle mandate, which starts next year and requires 35% of vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emission, will be “impossible to meet.”