Why California May (Finally) Be on Defense Against Trump

Good morning, Happy Friday, and thanks for opening the latest edition of the OC Conservative Brief!

Today we’re taking a look at why California’s war against President Trump’s Administration may not be playing out like last time. We’ll dive into the Democrats’ plan of attack against Young Kim, the last Republican House member standing in Orange County. Plus, we’ll discuss why industry leaders are suddenly raising the alarm about California’s EV mandate coming into effect this year and what might happen to that law in the future.

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Now let’s dive in…

CALIFORNIA ON DEFENSE? Let’s start the day with some food for thought about where California stands in its perpetual conflict with the Trump Administration. During President Trump’s first-term, California and Governor Gavin Newsom led the way of the “resistance” against his policies, both through court victories and new laws of their own, while proudly defending blue-state liberalism as a blueprint for the future.

This time, the narrative feels a little different. As President Trump refocuses his energy on the state and the realities of California’s policies set in, Democrats are on defense.

Last week, President Trump took aim via executive order at California’s radical climate policies that drive up the cost of energy. Newsom, of course, defended California. Yet as if on queue, a major California oil refinery this week announced its plans to shut down, citing high costs.

• That came after another massive refinery in Los Angeles announced it was closing its doors just days after Newsom signed an anti-oil bill into law.

It’s clear the state is careening towards an energy crisis of its own doing, and they can’t pin the blame on President Trump.

California just filed a bold lawsuit against President Trump’s ability to impose tariffs. It received little fanfare. Notably, no other states joined in, and California’s business community has remained mostly silent.

• In fact, one business group instead took the opportunity to take a shot at California’s hostile regulatory climate, saying “What [California is] doing to businesses is the same thing that Trump is doing to businesses as well.”

Sacramento Democrats have zealously defended California’s policy allowing biological men to compete in women’s sports and recently killed a bill to prohibit it, but how tenable is that position? The Department of Justice just sued the state of Maine for violating Title IX and has threatened that California may be next.

• Meanwhile, a new poll released this week found that 65% of Californians disagree with the Democrats’ position and support protections for women’s sports.

In the first Trump term, California Democrats tried to claim the moral high ground and cast California as a counterweight to the Trump Administration. This time, President Trump’s vision seems to have the upper hand … and California Democrats seem to realize they’re on defense.

The media has noticed California’s more tepid response to Trump’s second term. Moreover, a new poll comparing the views of state policymakers to voters at-large finds California voters aren’t as hot for - or as willing to go to war over - California’s liberal policies as the states leaders and influencers seem to be.

• 43% of voters said the state was “too confrontational” with Trump, versus just a third who said it was too passive (half of policymakers, meanwhile, said the state was too passive.)
  

• Just 45% of voters support the state’s EV mandate policy, while a whopping 82% of policymakers do.

It’s still early in President Trump’s second term, but so far, it looks like California is fighting losing battles. The courts may not be on their side, and neither is public opinion. Perhaps most importantly, Trump won’t have to lift a finger to expose how crazy California’s climate policies are. That is starting to bubble to the surface all on its own.

YOUNG KIM’S MEDICAID MANEUVERING Republican Rep. Young Kim (CA-40), the last Republican Congresswoman standing in Orange County, isn’t resting on her laurels … at least as far as fundraising is concerned. According to fundraising reports released this week, Kim raised $1.2 million in the first quarter of 2025 (an impressive haul) and reported $2.58 million in her campaign bank account.

Kim won re-election last year with a comfortable 55%, Republicans in her district maintain a 5-point registration advantage, and her seat is ranked as “Leans Republican.”

Nevertheless, Democrats are targeting her as a pick-up opportunity in 2026, and with potential cuts to Medicaid looming in the GOP’s “big beautiful” reconciliation bill, they smell blood in the water. Kim is already facing protests and angry town halls organized by Democrat-aligned groups back at home over Medicaid:

• Last week, Kim voted along party lines to advance the GOP’s final blueprint resolution that outlines broad spending and policy priorities for the House to begin crafting an actual budget bill. That resolution opens the door for cuts to the Medicaid program.

• This week, Kim signed a letter with 11 other Republican lawmakers warning Speaker Mike Johnson that they will not vote for a final bill that “includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations” while acknowledging they would support “targeted reforms.”
  

• That language is important because Republicans are insisting that any cuts to Medicaid will target waste, fraud, and abuse, not coverage or services, which would seemingly mollify their concerns.

Of course, claims of anyone losing Medicaid coverage are, for the moment, conjecture, but Democrats will continue to push them anyway.

Kim has so far attracted at least two Democrat challengers. L.A. art gallery-owner and first-generation Korean-American Esther Kim Varet launched her campaign in February and reported raising an impressive $1 million in Q1.

• That would make her a top-tier challenger in the Democrats’ eyes, though it may be over-stating her fundraising prowess a bit because, as the OC GOP noted, nearly half of that sum was contributed or loaned from her own personal finances.

Attorney Christina Gagnier, who lost her seat on the Chino Valley school board in 2022 to conservative education activist Sonja Shaw, also launched her campaign in February. She reported raising $305,000 in Q1.

And while we’re on the topic of fundraising, neighboring Democrat Rep. Dave Min (CA-47) reported raising just $752,000 in the same period, with only $716,000 in the bank. That’s not bad, but by no means makes him a financial powerhouse like his predecessor Katie Porter.

WILL DEMOCRATS CAVE ON ELECTRIC CARS? California Democrats have some tough decisions to make soon on the state’s looming electric vehicle mandate. Starting this year, 35% of all new vehicles sold by car dealers in the state must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), eventually phasing to 100% in 2035. The problem? California is no where close to meeting that 35% target this year. In fact, the state is currently going backwards.

According to new data from the California New Car Dealers Association, about 22% of all new car sales in the state were ZEVs in 2024. That was just a less than 1% increase from the prior year, and so far this year ZEV sales are actually falling, to 20.8% in the first quarter of 2025.

Why? The decline this quarter might specifically be pinned on a 15% drop in sales of Elon Musk’s Teslas, but that doesn’t explain the broader trend. Consumer demand for ZEVs across the state is cooling.

• Trump is undoing much of Biden’s zealous, federally-subsidized push for electric vehicles, but the stalling trend line was clear before he even came into office.
  

• Toyota’s Chief Operating Officer warned California last November that the “demand isn’t there” and that the California EV mandate “looks impossible” to achieve.

That’s why a new coalition of industry leaders, consumers, and businesses called CALIBRATE recently launched a campaign raising the alarm on the looming mandate and urging the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to pause it before the consequences begin to take effect. You can watch their video explaining the crisis in the link above.

• “Consumer demand isn’t keeping pace with the mandate,” the coalition said. “Without a pause to enforcement of ACC 2, the state – and millions of Californians – will start facing serious economic consequences in a matter of months.”

If automakers can’t meet the 35% target - and with the current trend lines it’s looking clear they won’t - they’ll simply limit how many gas vehicles they sell to hit it artificially, which would be far preferable to the $20,000 per-vehicle penalty they’d face. The cost of ZEVs will soar as well.

In any scenario, California’s consumers will be screwed, as it will become next to impossible to buy a gas-powered car. It will hurt working-class Californians especially hard, and ironically will lead to more fuel-inefficient cars on the road as drivers hold on to the older models they currently have.

This will become a serious political headache for Governor Newsom and the Democrats as the sticker price of new gas cars in the state starts to skyrocket just in time for the midterms. Businesses and consumers will raise hell. President Trump, who loves any excuse to beat up on California’s awful policies, will bring attention to it.

• In fact, just this week, Maryland’s Governor was forced to order a halt in the state’s enforcement of its own similar ZEV-mandate, over the exact same concerns.
  

• As mentioned earlier, a new poll this week found less than half of California voters support the mandate.

Democrats could easily put the mandate on pause, but that would of course require they say “no” to the zealous environmentalists driving their policy and admit their mandating scheme didn’t work. It’s the kind of suspension-of-economics fantasy that only Sacramento can proudly sign into law.

Otherwise, are Democrats gambling that they can beat Californians into submission to buy electric vehicles? I wouldn’t take that bet.

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

🏄‍♀️ The LA 2028 Olympics organizers announced that Lower Trestles beach south of San Clemente will host the Olympics surfing events, passing over Huntington Beach.

🌿 The Costa Mesa city council just approved another permit for a cannabis shop, bringing the total number of approved cannabis retailers in the city to 30 and closer to the cap of 35 approved by voters in 2024.

🧑‍⚖️ The OC District Attorney’s office announced it won more PR awards this month than any other public agency in the country, including a “Best in Show” award for its “Crime Doesn’t Pay in Orange County” billboard campaign.

✈️ LAX was absent from the list of the world’s Top Ten busiest airports in 2024 after ranking as the 8th busiest in 2023, citing issues recovering from the pandemic.

🦭 A sea lion attacking Newport Beach surfers was caught on film this week after the animal became overly aggressive due to a toxic algae bloom.