What the OC Early Voting Numbers Tell Us

With just four days to go until Election Day, let’s do a quick dive into what the early voting numbers coming out of Orange County are - or are not - telling us.

Orange County may not matter much in the presidential election, but we do have multiple House races here that could determine who controls Congress next year. So let’s see what the data says …

(Yes, the OC Conservative Brief, your source for the latest developments in Orange County and California politics, is BACK! If you like what you read, please sign up for the weekly newsletter. Now let’s dive in…)

THE EARLY VOTING TEA LEAVES … You may have heard or read something about the “early vote” - the data around people who are voting early by mail, by drop box, or in person at a voting center.

As of Friday morning, nearly 596,000 ballots have been returned in Orange County, nearly one third of all registered voters. Democrats have returned 229,576 ballots, Republicans have returned 235,242 ballots, and independents have returned 101,857 ballots.

THE TREND LINE ➡️ Despite Democrats having a +3% voter registration advantage in Orange County, Republicans are currently leading Democrats in ballots returned by 5,666 votes, or +0.9%. That means Republicans are outperforming their relative voter registration in Orange County by nearly 4%.

Why is that notable? Republicans in Orange County do not traditionally take a lead until Election Day, yet Republicans this year have held the lead in early voting since October 28th and haven’t looked back. That’s an encouraging sign for the GOP, though the Democrats still have four days to make up lost ground.

• LOOK BEYOND OC 👀 A similar story about Republicans over-performing in early voting has been emerging in Nevada.

It’s clear that Democrats are under-performing - although not drastically - in early voting. But before you start cracking out the calculator, keep in mind we have no way of knowing who these registered Republicans and Democrats - and the independents - actually cast their votes for.

But the biggest unknown of all: we have no idea who is actually going to show up to vote in person on Election Day. 

Republicans traditionally dominate Election Day voting, but are Republicans who would otherwise vote on Election Day being pushed to vote early this year? (This is known as campaigns’ “cannibalizing” their Election Day vote). Are the Democrats who aren’t voting early going to show up on Election Day?

• 📊 One data point to consider: Latino turnout in Orange County is so far lagging behind White and Asian turnout, which is certainly hurting Democrats’ math. Youth turnout shows a similar story. Will they show up on Election Day? Or are the Democrats’ struggling to motivate them to go to the polls?

My take… I have a hard time believing that Democrats who historically vote early have suddenly decided to vote on Election Day this year. My suspicion is that Democrats are having an enthusiasm problem with their lower-propensity voters (specifically young voters and Latinos) and it’s showing in the early vote numbers.

For example (you can see all these numbers in the graphic below), the turnout rate for voters aged 18-29 in Orange County so far is just 15.3%. Democrats hold a 21-point registration advantage with this group. The turnout rate for Latinos, with which Democrats hold a 28-point registration advantage, is just 22.2%. In contrast, the current turnout rate for voters aged 65+ is a whopping 56%, and Republicans hold a 9-point registration lead with this group.

• 🤔 Interestingly, you can see in the graph below that Republicans are actually over-performing their registration baseline among young voters and Latinos in the ballots that have so far been returned.

That low turnout among young voters and Latinos is almost certainly dragging the Democrats’ down in the early voting race. Where are they? Are they mailing their ballots in late? Are they showing up on Election Day? Are they staying home? If history is any indicator, I wouldn’t count on these voters suddenly showing up in person on Election Day. Democrats still have four days to get their early vote out and we could very well see them surge in the 11th hour.

But again, if Democrats are struggling with an enthusiasm problem, they are fighting an uphill battle. And, importantly for the GOP, based on the data below there are still more Republicans out there who could show up on Election Day and push them over the finish line.