We (Maybe) Have A Winner in the SD36 Special Election?!

Good morning, Happy Friday, and thanks for opening the latest edition of the OC Conservative Brief!

Today we’re checking in on the latest results for the SPECIAL ELECTION we just had here in Orange County. We’ll also take a look at what OC’s Congressional representatives had to say about the REPUBLICAN BUDGET RESOLUTION that just narrowly passed the House. And Democrats in Sacramento may cave on the new FUEL STANDARD MANDATES FROM CARB that will add up to $0.65 per gallon (!!) to the cost of gas here in California … if Republicans play their cards right.

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Now let’s dive in…

SD-36 SPECIAL ELECTION: WE HAVE A WINNER(?) Voters in coastal Orange County’s State Senate District 36 went to the polls on Tuesday for the special election primary to fill the open seat recently vacated by former state Sen. Janet Nguyen (R). Before we get into the results, the quick run down:

• Republicans have a 4-point registration advantage in the District, which runs from San Clemente to Seal Beach before turning inland to the Westminster-Cypress area and sliver of Los Angeles County. It leans red … Nguyen comfortably won her race in 2022 with 57% of the vote.
  

• The OC GOP and numerous Republican elected officials endorsed Huntington Beach City Councilmember Tony Strickland for the seat, although Republican John Briscoe also entered the race, alongside two Democrats.
  

• Republicans aimed for Strickland to win over 50% of the vote, which under California law would make Strickland the outright election winner and cancel the run-off election in April. (Remember, under California’s rules, the top two vote-getters in the primary advance to the general election regardless of party, unless someone wins over 50%).

Now to the results! As of Friday morning, Tony Strickland is currently sitting with a dominant lead at 51.4% (76,940 votes), which puts him on track to win this race out-right.

However, votes are still being counted, though the post-election day ballot drops have not had much of an impact on the overall trajectory so far. An update from Orange County Wednesday night pushed Strickland down to 51.0%; Thursday night’s update pushed him back up even higher to 51.4%.

Orange County says it still has 9,000 votes left to count as of Friday morning. Los Angeles County, meanwhile, says all it has left are “provisional ballots,” meaning likely not many … and even then, LA County only accounts for about 8% of the district.

For Strickland to dip below 50%, he would need to decisively lose the 9,000 remaining ballots left in Orange County, which is possible, but doesn’t seem likely given the trend of the last few ballot drops.

• FOOD FOR THOUGHT: In normal elections, Democrat-leaning low-propensity voters mail in their ballots in at the last minute, which is what causes those big, painful-to-watch post-Election Day ballot drops that chip away at Republicans’ leads. However, in special elections where turnout is far lower, it’s the higher-propensity voters who participate…and that same trend doesn’t necessarily hold.

While no one has formally declared victory yet, the OC GOP is sending a message it believes it’s all but over. “We are confident that Tony Strickland’s lead will continue to grow and win outright to avoid a runoff,” an OC GOP spokesman said. They say they are now focusing their efforts on “curing” ballots to ensure every legal Republican vote is counted.

Another California political analysis told the OC Register Republicans have reason to be “bullish.”

We’ll know by next week: results have to be certified by March 6th.

But what happens if Strickland falls under 50%? Then the top two vote-getters, which as of now would be Strickland and Democrat Jimmy Pham, head to the run-off (aka general) election in April. These primary results - the Republican candidates are winning a combined 57% of the vote - portend to good Republican chances in April. However, having one Democrat on the ballot may persuade Democrat groups to actually spend money in the race and try to ignite their base to give the GOP a run for their money, which is something the OC GOP and the Strickland campaign are obviously hoping to avoid.

While it may slightly premature to formally congratulate Strickland on a win today, we can certainly applaud him for a dominating performance.

In the meantime, I’ll leave you with some interesting numbers on the results from California GOP Data Director Cole Patterson that reveal Republicans absolutely trounced Democrats on turnout: while the GOP holds a 4-point registration advantage over Democrats, they beat Democrats in turnout by 15-points.

DELAYED GAS TAX Just three days after the November elections, the unelected officials on California’s Air Resource Board (CARB) quietly voted to update the “special blend” of gasoline that gas stations are required to sell in the state of California, in the name of meeting the state government’s aggressive Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) emissions targets. The strict new mandates are projected to hike the price of gas by as much as $0.65 per gallon this year.

• CONTEXT: Remember, CARB is acting on Gavin Newsom’s executive orders demanding a goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 and a ban on the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035.

That is, if they ever take effect. Last week, the state’s Office of Administrative Law (OAL) suddenly blocked the new fuel standard, citing a lack of “clarity” and “incorrect procedure” from CARB. The objection appears to be rest on technical grounds. OAL has blocked CARB rules in the past only to approve revised versions later.

But it will likely take months for the new regulations to be revised, submitted, and approved … which is buying Republicans in Sacramento legislative time to try and stop it.

• AB-12, cosponsored by every Republican Assembly member in Orange County, would completely void the new regulations being pursued by CARB. (Republicans tried and failed to force a floor vote on it last week, so it is now making its way through the regular legislative process.)
  

• Meanwhile, the similar SB-2, sponsored by Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones (R-San Diego), is making its way through the Senate.

“While this recent announcement is a momentary win, Newsom’s Air Resources Board has 120 days to address the issue and resubmit,” Sen. Jones said. “Our Senate Bill 2 will protect Californians by repealing the gas price hike and holding this corrupt Administration accountable for trying to deceive the public.”

Consider the optics here: A government agency, acting under Governor Newsom’s directives, issuing mandates that hike the price of gas for millions of Californians by $0.65 in a state where gas is already shockingly expensive, in an economy where consumers are already feeling pinched by inflation, and after an election where voters made their thoughts on the skyrocketing cost-of-living clear? And the Democrats will do nothing to stop it?

This isn’t a vote many Democrats will want to take. But they might, if they think they can get away with it. Their fealty to the green agenda knows no bounds and their views on energy are absolutely insane.

I’ll root for the Republicans in Sacramento but one up them with this: why don’t we put this “hidden gas tax” on the ballot for the voters to decide in 2026? Ask the people of California to weigh in on whether to put a hold on the cost-spiking new fuel standards required to meet Newsom’s costly fever dream?

After all, it’s we the people who will be paying for it.

HOUSE BUDGET VOTE In a nail-biter of a vote Tuesday evening, House Republicans narrowly (217 - 215) passed on a party-line vote their 2025 Budget Resolution, the legislative first step for the “big, beautiful” reconciliation bill that President Trump and the GOP are pushing for … but what did Orange County’s representatives have to say about it?

The Budget Resolution is just that - a framework setting top-line budget numbers for legislators to use when writing the reconciliation bill. It calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next ten years. It also instructs the Homeland Security Committee to appropriate $100 billion more for border security.

• SPEAK WASHINGTON: Legislation that deals with budget issues only requires a simple majority in the Senate to pass, a process known as “reconciliation.” Republicans, who control both chambers, are pursuing reconciliation to enact their agenda while avoiding a filibuster from Senate Democrats, though there are constraints on what can be voted on via that process. Democrats have done this before too.

The resolution doesn’t get into spending specifics. That all comes later. In the coming weeks, House Republicans will start crafting a massive reconciliation package with detailed spending cuts and tax cuts that operate within the above framework. They will also be in conflict with the Senate GOP, who passed their own, albeit smaller, budget framework last week (Senate Republicans have said they’d rather work on two smaller bills than one massive bill like the House is working on).

What did Orange County’s lawmakers have to say about it? Rep. Young Kim (CA-40), the only House Republican left in Orange County, voted for the bill and posted a video Tuesday night explaining why … and what the final bill would need for her support.

Meanwhile, the two freshmen Democrats from Orange County voted no and let loose a preview of messaging we’ll be hearing from Democrats at large:

• Rep. Dave Min, who voted no, (CA-47) posted that House Republicans chose “Trump and Elon Musk over the American people and voted to cut Medicaid.”

• Rep. Derek Tran (CA-45), who also voted no, wrote that “House Republicans passed a budget that cuts $880B from Medicaid and $230B from SNAP.”

LOOK AT THE FACTS: While the resolution doesn’t enact or even call for cuts to any specific programs, it does call for the House Energy and Commerce Committee to cut $880 billion over the next decade from programs in its portfolio, which includes Medicaid. House Republicans have not exactly been hiding this, and many GOP members have voiced their opposition to any cuts to Medicaid that effect vital health services, as Rep. Young Kim voiced above.

• READ FROM POLITICO: “The House GOP's Medicaid Holdouts Are Coming Around.”

However, there is a LOT that can be done to rein in spending from Medicaid that doesn’t involve cold-cutting Americans off the program, such as requiring states to increase their share of spending in the joint state-federal program and eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse. We’ll see in the weeks to come what gets written into the bill … and how House Republicans react.

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

🤡 Governor Gavin Newsom announced he is launching a new podcast this week, largely viewed as a media play in his expected bid for the White House in 2028.

🐟 Santa Monica Seafood, which operated a fresh seafood market in Costa Mesa for decades, announced the sudden closure of that location last week.

📕 A group of Huntington Beach activists, including two high school teenagers, sued the city this week over its new review board for lewd children’s books in public libraries.

🗳️ Democrat Christina Gagnier, a former member of the Chino Valley School Board, announced her campaign against Republican Congresswoman Young Kim, a top target for national Democrats to defeat in 2026.

😷 Orange County public health officials said that an infant returning home from South Korea via a flight to LAX last week was infected with measles, but noted no additional community exposure.