🍊 🇺🇸 OC Conservative Brief - 9.22.23

Good morning, happy Friday, and welcome to your end-of-week edition of the OC Conservative Brief, your run down of Orange County's local politics from a conservative perspective.

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This week, we have

CALIFORNIA TRIES TO TAKE D̶O̶W̶N̶ OFF TRUMP A group of nine California Democrat lawmakers wrote a letter to the state’s Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) this week urging him to pursue an outside-the-box legal route to potentially remove President Trump from Republican ballots in California’s primary elections next year.

Wait, they can do that?! They think they have a shot. They’re citing the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution in their legal arguments, pointing to the rarely-used clause that bars anyone who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same” from holding office.

• Specifically, the lawmakers are urging Bonta to use his legal standing as Attorney General to ask a judge for “declaratory relief” and, citing Trump’s role in January 6th, prompt a ruling on whether Trump is eligible to be on the state ballot.

The idea to use the 14th Amendment to derail President Trump’s 2024 ambitions isn’t unique to California. Activists have tried to remove Trump’s name from the ballot in other states across the country. So far the response from officials in those states has been chilly.

• Activists have succeeded in getting a judge to weigh in on the question in Colorado, with a ruling predicted by Thanksgiving.

However, California’s case is unique because activists are pushing the Attorney General, who holds considerable judicial authority, to weigh in. California is also the largest state in the country and holds the biggest delegate prize on the 2024 primary calendar, so anything that happens here will have repercussions.

Bonta’s office has acknowledged the California letter, but so far hasn’t offered an opinion on its legal merits or their plans, if any, to act:

• “We are aware of the letter and will review the request internally,” a spokesperson said. “There is no denying that Donald Trump has engaged in behavior that is unacceptable and unbecoming of any leader — let alone a president of the United States. Beyond that, we have no additional comment.”

Trump’s campaign, for its part, has skewered these attempts, arguing “There is no legal basis for this effort except in the minds of those who are pushing it.”

So, is it legit? From a political perspective, Bonta - who is considering running for governor in 2026 after Newsom’s term expires - has plenty of motivation to try.

• Such an aggressive move would give him a claim to fame in a crowded 2026 primary while boosting his fundraising and name ID in loyal Democrat circles, following the path of other ambitious DAs pursuing charges against Trump.

However, there’s no guarantee the legal strategy would work. The 14th Amendment was written in the context of barring former Confederate leaders from holding office in the aftermath of the Civil War; it has never been applied to a modern case even remotely close to this level.

If a judge did rule in Bonta’s favor, it would only apply to the ballot in California; and even then, it would almost certainly be appealed up to the Supreme Court.

The downside for the anti-Trump activists to these approaches? Giving Trump another vindicating and headline-grabbing win - just like their failed impeachment attempt in 2020 gave Trump a shot in the arm.

In my opinion… this is just the latest in a never-ending parade of half-baked attempts to keep Trump out of office. It’s ironic that activists who regard themselves as protectors of democracy and elections are trying to use the courts to keep someone off of the ballot, denying millions of Americans the right to vote for their preferred candidate.

As for Bonta, who knows what he will do. A challenge like this to Trump may make him a martyr on the Left. But it also disenfranchises millions of Trump supporters in California. It sets a controversial precedent. He could get slapped down with a humiliating loss in court.

I’d stay out of this one and let the Colorado court take the heat. But never underestimate anti-Trump derangement syndrome. It’s a hell of a drug.

SHOULD NON-CITIZENS VOTE? SANTA ANA SAYS MAYBE Turning now to more local politics…the Santa Ana City Council voted this week to move forward with a local ballot measure for voters to approve in 2024 that, if passed, would pave the way for non-citizens (including illegal immigrants) to vote in city elections.

Proponents say that allowing non-citizens to vote in city elections would make city government more representative of its residents. Nearly one fourth of Santa Ana’s roughly 300,000 residents are not U.S. citizens, per U.S. census data, and many of them are undocumented.

Not everyone is on board. Some local residents, many who became naturalized citizens in their own right, spoke out against the council’s actions, arguing that opening up the right to vote to non-citizens dilutes the value of U.S. citizenship.

• Santa Ana Mayor Valerie Amezcua also came out against the proposal, adding that registering non-citizens’ information to vote could put them in jeopardy of being deported.

Amezcua also called out the timing of the push as a political stunt; one of Santa Ana’s most progressive councilmembers is facing a high-profile recall backed by the city’s police union in November, meaning activists could soon be losing a key vote in the city council.

Santa Ana isn’t the first city to try to open up its voter rolls to non-citizens. San Francisco voters passed Proposition N in 2016, allowing undocumented residents with children to vote in school board elections. That measure was struck down by a judge in 2022 but upheld in a court of appeals last month.

• The law was challenged in court after last year’s headline-grabbing recall election, which saw the ousting of three progressive school board members, saw the highest turnout of non-citizens since the law’s implementation.

New York City passed a similar law in 2021, only to have it struck down by the state Supreme Court before it could go into effect; the appeals court ruling in favor of San Francisco prompted Santa Ana to pursue a law of its own.

Federal law bans noncitizens from voting in federal elections, including races for president, vice president, Senate or House of Representatives. California state law is similar; however, courts have generally found that city government’s have wide discretion to determine how they run their own elections.

• Huntington Beach, for example, is moving in the completely opposite direction and pursuing election integrity reforms in its own elections, including voter ID and ballot box monitoring.

It’s unclear if a measure allowing undocumented immigrants to vote in Santa would even pass. While Hillary Clinton won 85% of the vote in deep blue San Francisco in 2016, Proposition N only passed that year by nine points. Santa Ana, while heavily Democrat, is not nearly as progressive as San Francisco (for comparison, Biden “only” won 67% of the vote in Santa Ana in 2020).

The idea isn’t generally popular, either. A 2018 poll found that 71% of voters nation-wide opposed San Francisco’s move, including 54% of Democrats.

One thing to keep an eye on: if progressive council member Jessie Lopez is recalled in November and replaced with a more conservative alternative, it could blow up the entire plan.

THE RETURN OF GIL Some Orange County voters may remember Gil Cisneros, the $266 million lottery winner Democrat who successfully ran for Congress in Orange County in 2018 against Young Kim in 2018, only to be defeated by Kim in a rematch in 2020.

Cisneros is running for Congress again, this time in California’s 31st District in the San Gabriel Valley north of Orange County, which is being vacated by retiring Democrat Congressman Grace Napolitano.

Cisneros hasn’t been idle since his 2020 defeat. Biden appointed him to a position in the Pentagon overseeing personnel and readiness, a job that included implementation of the Defense Department’s controversial “diversity, equity, and inclusion” programs.

That made him a top target of Washington Republicans. Rep. Lauren Boebert spearheaded an effort in Congress to slash Cisneros’ taxpayer-funded salary to just $1, arguing that he and others “put their leftist agenda ahead of our national security” and “jeopardized the United States military’s ability to defend our country.”

The CA-31 seat is deep blue, meaning whichever Democrat emerges from the primary will almost certainly be victorious. However, Cisneros faces tough competition from other Democrats who have patiently been waiting in the wings, including state senator Bob Archuleta (who has been endorsed by Napolitano).

Gil is taking the old adage to heart…if at first you don’t succeed, change districts and then try again.

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

⛽️ Average gas prices in Orange County surged past $6 a gallon this week, the highest since October 2022.

🚨 A new analysis found California could lose up to five additional House seats in Congress from the next redistricting in 2030 if current population decline trends continue.

🗑️ Newport Beach broke ground last week on an innovative solar-powered “water wheel” designed to collect trash that floats from upstream into the Upper Newport Bay.

💀 County officials are warning that Orange County’s public cemeteries are running out of room, forcing county leaders to freeze burial plot purchases until after someone has already died.

Have a tip on a news item in Orange County conservatives should know about? Drop me a line at [email protected]