🍊 🇺🇸 OC Conservative Brief - 2.24.23

Good morning and happy Friday! It's already a wet and windy morning here in Orange County, and the forecast suggests it's about to get a lot worse.

This is your weekly edition of the OC Conservative Brief, your run down of Orange County's local politics from a conservative perspective. If you like what you read, please make sure to subscribe and forward to your friends. It's free!

We have some new OC House race rankings this week to review and an admission of defeat from OC Democrat David Min on Gavin Newsom's war on oil companies, but since we're all about to get rained on let's start with a quick run down on water...

WATER WE DOING?! Given last month's and this upcoming weekend's torrential rainfall and snowpack, Californians accustomed to hearing about "drought" from Sacramento may be asking themselves: where is all that water going?

The good news: Orange County Water District officials are preparing to use the upcoming rainfall to replenish the county's groundwater supply with the storm water, which accounts for about 20% of the county's water supply in an average year. The county says it has been, and will be able to, capture the "bulk" of it."

Still, California's water officials can't capture all of it. Frustratingly, water that exceeds capacity is redirected by the Army Corp of Engineers back into the Pacific Ocean to prevent flooding. What's more, the New York Times admitted this week in an article titled "Parched California Misses A Chance To Store More Rain Underground" that state bureaucracy regulating how much water upstream jurisdictions are allowed to take wastes water that could otherwise be stored:

• "Yet even this winter, when the skies delivered bounties of water not seen in half a decade, large amounts of it surged down rivers and out into the ocean. Water agencies and experts say California bureaucracy is increasingly to blame — the state tightly regulates who gets to take water from streams and creeks to protect the rights of people downriver, and its rules don’t adjust nimbly even when storms are delivering a torrent of new supply."

• "During last month’s drenching storms, some water districts got the state’s green light to take floodwater only as the rains were ending, allowing them to siphon off just a few days’ worth. Others couldn’t take any at all because floods overwhelmed their equipment."

IN MY OPINION... Maybe California officials should spend less time scolding about drought and climate change and more time investing in ways to capture and retain all this water? 🤔

HUNTINGTON BLUES(HIELD)... The back-and-forth over Huntington Beach's city council decision to remove the LGBT Pride flag from City Hall and fly only official government flags took a new turn this week after the Blue Shield of California Foundation announced it would be cancelling its "summer retreat" scheduled in the city over the issue, saying that the city's decision "undermines their mission."

• Huntington Beach Councilmember Casey McKeon shot back at Blue Shield's corporative activism, arguing that Blue Shield is “trying to blackmail us economically” and that “it’s time to do a refresh to see what other health care providers would be interested in our business.”

Polling context... Republicans - and most Americans, really - are growing tired of corporations stepping into politics when they don't need to. A January Gallup poll found 52% of Americans want companies to avoid taking public stances on political and social issues, and just 18% of Republicans think companies should take a stance on current events.

NO (BIG OIL) COLLUSION!? California Democrats from Gavin Newsom on down have been talking a tough game lately about oil companies "price gouging" off of high gas prices and taxing excess profits.

Sacramento Democrats held their first hearing on the issue this week...and it didn't go as planned. According to the LA Times, a consensus emerged that capping fossil fuel industry earnings could have "unintended consequences" for consumers and that there is no easy problem to blame, let alone solution to solve. Politico noted that Newsom's proposal "failed to gain traction" and that lawmakers greeted his idea with "skepticism."

Orange County Democrat state Sen. Dave Min, who sat on the committee and is running for Congress to replace Rep. Katie Porter, conceded as much with a surprisingly frank admission that there actually is no intentional price-gouging:

• "There is clearly a belief out there among many people that oil companies were profiting off the backs of Californians. At the same time, we don't really have a smoking gun as far as I can see, that shows intentional collusion."

As President Trump would say: NO COLLUSION!

THE OC BORDER BOAT CRISIS... U.S. Customs and Border Patrol apprehended 11 illegal immigrants after a 23-foot smuggling vessel ran aground on the sand near Huntington Beach Monday evening. Six were detained immediately by local authorities; the rest were caught by Homeland Security officials shortly after (you can check out video of the incident here.)

Smugglers using small vessels to sneak migrants or narcotics into the country is becoming a trend in Orange County. Nearly a dozen illegal immigrants were rescued, with some requiring medical attention, after a smuggling boat was spotted drifting off the coast of Orange County in December, and similar incidents have happened in Newport Beach and Laguna Beach over the past year. (Here's a video of an incident earlier this month involving 15 migrants in Mission Beach).

NOTES FROM THE PARTY... On Monday the Orange County Republican Party held its monthly central committee meeting and formally endorsed all of Orange County's Republican incumbents who are running in 2024 (full disclosure: I was there).

BUT, the party also endorsed one non-incumbent, Scott Baugh, who is running in the 47th congressional district again after narrowly losing last year to Democrat Katie Porter. This was notable because the OC GOP rarely endorses non-incumbent candidates so early in election season.

As OC GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker put it, according to a press release issued by Baugh's campaign:

• “This was an easy endorsement for our committee to make and it was important to make the endorsement early. We know that Scott Baugh represents the best chance for Republicans to take back the 47th Congressional District in 2024. He has the grassroots support from the community, he has proven to be a fierce campaigner and he is a true conservative. He deserves the support of Republicans running against the radical democrats that have already announced and it is important for us to send a message, Republicans are unified and ready to win.”

🚨 OC RACE ALERTS... Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, one of the top political handicapping guides used by the media and political operatives, just released their initial ratings on what it believes will be 2024's most-competitive House races. Unsurprisingly, they view the race for control of the House as a "toss up" in 2024 (remember, every single House seat is on the ballot again next year and Republicans only have a six-seat majority).

Notably, four of Orange County's biggest House districts are on the list, meaning the path for control of Congress in 2024 will once again wind through Orange County. Why are they all considered so competitive? President Biden narrowly won all four of these districts in 2020, but Republicans currently hold two of them, giving both parties incentives to dedicate a ton of resources to hold and/or flip them in 2024.

Here's a quick lay of the land twenty months away from the election (and here's a helpful map of the district outlines if you aren't sure which district is where). Remember, things can change with nearly two years to go:

• The inland OC-based 40th district, currently represented by Republican Rep. Young Kim, is rated as a "Likely Republican" hold in 2024. Although Biden won this district by just 2 points in 2020, Kim won re-election in 2022 by nearly 14-points.

• The Westminster-Fountain Valley-based 45th district, currently represented by Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, is rated as a "Leans Republican" hold. Biden won here by 6 points in 2020, but Steel won re-election by 5 points last year, a narrower margin than Kim.

• The northern coastal OC-based 47th district, currently represented by Democrat Rep. Katie Porter who is giving up the seat next year to run for Senate, is rated as a pure "TOSS UP." Biden won here by 11 points in 2020, but Porter only won re-election by 4 points in 2022. Republican Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter last year, has already announced plans to run again. As of now, this district is considered the GOP's best (though not only) chance to pick up a seat in California in 2024.

• The southern coastal OC-based 49th district, currently represented by Democrat Rep. Mike Levin, is rated as a "Likely Democrat" hold. Biden won this district by 11 points in 2020, and Levin won re-election by 6 points.

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

📈 It's a free-for-all in the California Senate race primary according to a new poll, with OC Democrat Katie Porter (20%) just two points behind her rival Adam Schiff (22%). No other candidate hit double digits in the poll, but more than a third of voters are still undecided.

🐘 According to the OC GOP, the Party's event next month's with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is on track to be the most lucrative fundraiser in its history.

🍔 Shake Shack, the famous burger joint popular in big cities on the East Coast and across America, is coming to Orange County, with its first location set to open in the Irvine Spectrum this summer.

🎈 Balloons are now officially banned in Laguna Beach after the city council took its final vote this week on the measure, which bans the sale and public use of all types of balloons.

🏠 Huntington Beach is continuing its war on Sacramento's housing mandates, telling the city attorney this week to begin challenging the state's laws allowing developers to build "accessory dwelling units," or multiple dwellings on a single piece of property.

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Have a tip on a news item in Orange County conservatives should know about? Drop me a line at [email protected]