Newsom's Gerrymandered Maps Are Finally Here. They Aren't Pretty For Orange County

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Today we’re diving into Newsom’s gerrymandered maps and how the new lines would impact Orange County (hint: it’s not pretty). We’re also sharing a wild story about one of the crazier Democrats running for Assembly District 72 and reviewing some new polling released this morning about how California voters feel about the Trump agenda (some numbers might surprise you!)

Now let’s dive in…

HAVE YOU SEEN THE MAPS?! California Democrats released their proposed redistricting maps last Friday, finally revealing how Newsom’s redistricting scheme would impact Orange County. It’s gory. Remember, this is all still hypothetical: the legislature voted to put these new maps on the ballot in November just yesterday, meaning voters will be asked to approve them (it will be dubbed Proposition 50) this November.

In a nutshell:

• The swing Orange County districts, the 45th and 47th currently held by Democrats Dave Min and Derek Tran, get redrawn and become more Democrat. The 45th district gets tinkered with around the edges, but the 47th District gets sawed in half.
  

• GOP Rep. Young Kim’s 40th District, which already leans Republican, becomes solidly Republican.
  

• Parts of Los Angeles County get stitched into the Orange County-based 45th, while the northern Orange County beach cities get rammed into parts of the Long Beach-centric 42nd District.

Keep in mind, these maps were drawn by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the partisan committee responsible for winning seats for Democrats. This is about as inherently partisan gerrymandering as you can get. We’ll dive into a little bit of the new districts geography below.

But first, new polling released this morning shows that 48% of registered California voters would vote YES on the new maps (Prop. 50). Just 32% would vote no, with another 20% undecided. That’s a far better result for Democrats than last week’s poll, which found that strong majorities of Californians disapproved of the idea.

• 😀 The good(ish) news: support for Prop. 50 isn’t above 50%, and undecided voters tend to vote no.
  

• ☹️ The bad news: among “regular voters” (those who voted in five of the last seven state-wide elections), support for the new maps climbs to 55%, with 34% opposed.

That latter number suggests that turnout in the upcoming special election may favor Democrat voters. That being said, this latest poll is just a snapshot of the electorate before the campaign begins in earnest or before any real money has been spent.

🗺️ GEOGRAPHY LESSON ➡️ The 47th District, composing Seal, Huntington, Newport, and Laguna Beaches as well as Costa Mesa and Irvine, currently represented by Democrat Rep. Dave Min, gets completely cut in half. Irvine and Laguna are stitched into Tustin, Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo, and Dana Point, to make a new “47th District.”

• The 47th District becomes more Democrat. Harris won the current district by four points; with these lines, she would have won it by ten.

Newport Beach gets cut in half. Newport Coast stays with the 47th District, while the upper half, along with Costa Mesa, Huntington, and Seal Beach, get stitched into southern Long Beach and Signal Hill, becoming a part of the 42nd District. This District, currently represented by Democrat Rep. Robert Garcia, would also have a Democrat-tilt.

Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Young Kim’s 40th District becomes solidly Republican, and the 45th - Michelle Steele’s old district, currently represented by Democrat Derek Tran, becomes slightly more Democrat.

🥜 IN A NUTSHELL: Orange County’s number of Democrat and Republican representatives stays the same under the new maps. However, the swing districts currently held by Democrats become more Democrat, putting them - at least currently - much farther out of reach for a Republican to win.

I’ll leave you with some some thoughts on the new maps I shared with the OC Register.

POLLING BRIEF A new Politico poll of California voters released Friday offers some insights into their thoughts on President Trump’s agenda. Some key findings:

⚕️ 62% believe that the state should continue to provide illegal immigrants with free Medicaid coverage, although a significant majority of that group agree that if the state has to cut Medicaid than U.S. citizens and legal residents should be the priority. (This is notably higher than earlier this year, suggesting a backlash to the Trump Administration’s aggressive ICE policies).

👨‍🎓 4 in 10 voters agree with President Trump that California colleges that push DEI programs in hiring should lose federal funding.

🚗 Just 46% of voters support Newsom’s signature initiative, blocked by President Trump earlier this year, to ban the sale of gas cars by 2035, while 48% oppose it.

🚆 62% of voters still back California’s high-speed rail project, even though 54% agree there is a “low likelihood” it will ever be finished.

HUNTINGTON BEACH GETS A KLUWE? Former NFL punter turned anti-MAGA activist, Huntington Beach resident, and football coach Chris Kluwe is running for Assembly as a Democrat in the 72nd District for the seat being vacated by Republican Diane Dixon. If you haven’t heard his name before, grab a quick coffee and catch up on this gem of a story.

• The 72nd Assembly District covers coastal Orange County from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach and a sliver of inland south county.

Back in February, Kluwe spoke at a Huntington Beach city council meeting against a proposal to install a MAGA-themed plaque on the local library in commemoration of its 50th anniversary. He railed against MAGA, including that MAGA is “explicitly a Nazi movement” that “replaced a swastika with a red hat.”

He then declared he was going to engage in “peaceful civil disobedience” and walked towards the dais where the city councilors were seated. That prompted police officers in attendance to subdue him, take him out of the chamber, and arrest him.

• Kluwe’s arrest made national headlines, including Newsweek, the Washington Post, NBC News, and the LA Times.

It didn’t end there. About a week later, Kluwe was informed by Edison High School, where he worked as a football coach, that he was being let go (which also made national headlines). At first, it seemed he was being fired over his comments and arrest at the council meeting.

However, days later, the Huntington Beach Union High School District said in a news release that Kluwe was fired over a social media post he made on the liberal platform Bluesky following his arrest that seemed to encourage violence:

• “Stop (expletive) with the library. That’s what the City Council is doing. The library is great, as are the people who work there. Go (expletive) with the City Council. Find where they work, and blow those places up.”

It’s not over yet. This summer, Kluwe filed a lawsuit, backed by the ACLU, against the Huntington Beach school district, alleging that his firing was a violation of his free speech rights. That lawsuit is currently pending.

Now he’s running for Assembly. As the OC GOP asked when he announced his campaign, “So, the Democrats plan on running Chris Kluwe for Assembly District 72? The guy who was recently fired from a local high school after threatening to blow up the workplaces of local elected officials?”

Regardless of who Democrats run, this seat is tough terrain for them. Diane Dixon comfortably won the 72nd Assembly district seat in a landslide in 2024 by nearly 20 points.

On the Republican side, conservative Huntington Beach Councilmember Gracey Van Der Mark threw her hat into the ring in May. Former Huntington Beach mayor and former Assemblymember Matthew Harper is also running.

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

🗳️ A new poll of the California governor’s race finds Democrat Katie Porter has catapulted into the lead with registered voters at 30% after Kamala Harris announced she wasn’t running. On the Republican side, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco outpaced Steve Hilton, 15 percent to 10 percent.

🌞 A heat wave across Southern California is likely to extend into the weekend, as weather experts said this kind of heat is “normal” for this time of year.

😱 A “prominent” staff member of Reedemer Church of Orange County in Newport Beach was arrested this week over allegations he sexually assaulted a teenage girl multiple times over the course of a decade.

🏃‍♂️ Democrat immigration lawyer Lisa Ramirez announced she is running against Republican Rep. Young Kim in the 40th District, joining a crowded field of several other Democrat challengers.

🤠 The historic Lido Theater in Newport Beach is preparing to host “John Wayne Week” at the end of August, with a lineup of four movies starring the famous actor.