Costa Mesa Takes a Hard Left Turn Against ICE

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Today we’re diving into the latest in California’s redistricting war - it’s officially on and we have a first look at how Newsom’s redrawn maps might impact Orange County - and a recent vote from the Costa Mesa city council that positions the city financially and legally against ICE.

Now let’s dive in…

REDISTRICTING WAR! Gavin Newsom and other national Democrats Thursday officially launched their campaign to gerrymander California’s congressional maps and erase Republican seats. It’s moving fast: the Democrat-dominated state legislature is expected to unveil new maps today, approve them next week, then put them up to the voters in a November 4th special election (remember, this is all in response to what Republicans are doing to Democrats in Texas).

• A leaked sneak peak at how the new maps might impact Orange County is at the bottom of this section.

That’s just two and a half months for Democrats to mount a statewide campaign to convince voters to blow up the independent redistricting process they overwhelmingly passed just two decades ago. Mark your calendars. This is going to be a big one. (I wrote a short primer on what “redistricting” is in the last newsletter).

Here’s the good news. New polling released Thursday finds that Newsom’s plan is overwhelmingly unpopular with California voters. By a nearly 2-1 margin, 64% to 36%, voters prefer to keep the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission, even when told that it’s a response to Republicans doing the same thing in other states.

• Even 61% of Democrats oppose the measure, and an even higher percentage of Independents (72%) are opposed to Newsom’s plan.

So Democrats are already starting their gerrymandering crusade from a disadvantageous place. It’s also worth pointing out that, from a voter psychology perspective, campaigns with strong “Vote No” messages tend to perform better than “Vote Yes” (it’s easier to vote against something than vote for something).

YES BUT: Keep in mind that Democrats will ultimately decide how the initiative will be worded on the ballot. It’s going to be titled the “Election Rigging Response Act.” The best path for them to get this initiative approved is, in a state that voted against Trump by double digits, to frame it as a referendum/check on President Trump and “defending democracy.”

💰💰 Expect the ad and money wars to be intense. Democrats are planning to raise at least $100 million to have a shot. Republicans, of course, will have a well-funded messaging campaign of their own. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was instrumental in getting the independent redistricting commission passed while he was governor, is expected to lead the “No” campaign. 

• He’ll be reuniting the same voices who were critical in getting it overwhelmingly passed the first time despite substantial opposition from the state’s Democrat establishment.

Meanwhile, former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is already making plans to raise $100 million against the effort. Billionaire Charles Munger Jr. is reportedly considering putting an additional $30 million towards the cause.

There’s a lot at stake for Newsom as he lays the groundwork for his 2028 presidential run. Sure, he’s currently basking in the media limelight as a Democrat hero taking on President Trump and “defending democracy.” But he still needs voters to sign off on his plan. A rebuke at the ballot box in November, in his home state, after he put all his chips in, would be incredibly embarrassing.

For that reason, this redistricting fight isn’t just about the 2026 midterms, but the next presidential election as well. This is going to be the biggest story in California politics from now until November. Stay tuned.

🚨 BTW, Politico obtained a leaked chart Thursday night with the new partisan tilt of each congressional seat after redistricting. Here’s how it would impact Orange County:

• The 45th and 49th Districts, currently held by Democrats Derek Tran and Dave Min, would shift from “Lean Democrat” to “Safe Democrat.”

• The 40th District, currently held by Republican Young Kim, would remain “Safe Republican.”

It’s hard to analyze any further without seeing the actual maps (which are expected to come out today), but under this scenario it looks like a lot of Orange County voters will be living in new districts.

COSTA MESA ON ICE? Costa Mesa took a hard left turn at last week’s city council meeting against the Trump Administration’s aggressive ICE enforcement operations, voting for several proposals that tee the city up against Trump’s immigration agenda both legally and financially.

Amid a deluge of comments from residents describing the fear that has gripped local Hispanic families and begging for action, the city council voted to, among other things, donate $100,000 in taxpayer funds to the non-profit Enough For All, a coalition of local churches that supports immigrant families afraid of leaving their homes with food and rental assistance.

They also directed city staff to explore Costa Mesa joining the federal lawsuit, already backed by Anaheim and Santa Ana, attempting to prohibit ICE from making warrantless stops. That lawsuit resulted in a district judge issuing a temporary restraining against warrantless ICE operations in Southern California, which was recently upheld in the 9th Circuit court of appeals.

• Irvine is also considering joining the lawsuit, while the OC Board of Supervisors declined to take any action.

The council also asked staff to propose how the city could establish its own “legal defense fund” to support residents swept up by ICE and passed a resolution supporting the “No Vigilantes Act” (SB 805) currently making its way through the state legislature which would, among other things, require ICE agents to visibly identify themselves and show credentials when making arrests.

The vote for the agenda was 5-0, with the council’s two more conservative members, Jeff Pettis and Mike Buley, absent.

The meeting, packed largely with residents against ICE, was tame. A city council meeting last month was much more heated, with both anti-ICE and pro-Trump residents speaking - and sometimes heckling each other - while the council discussed a resolution condemning ICE agents for wearing face coverings.

It’s clear the Costa Mesa council is facing some pressure - at least by activists - to respond to the expansion of ICE activity in some capacity. ICE has reportedly detained day laborers outside the Home Depot in Costa Mesa (and others across Orange County). As one resident and activist from an immigration-focused non-profit put it during public comment, “What you have before you are just resolutions. What we need are real policy changes. The city needs to invest money and dollars to this cause.”

Indeed they did. Almost everything they voted on was symbolic, with the exception of the $100,000 taxpayer donation to the non-profit.

• That taxpayer-funded donation comes at a time when the city is facing a nearly $3 million budget shortfall and recently postponed some planned infrastructure projects to help fill the gap.

Back in June amid the anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles, officials in Costa Mesa, reassured anxious residents that the Costa Mesa Police Department would not be enforcing immigration law (note that this does not make Costa Mesa a sanctuary city; local police departments do not usually enforce immigration law anyway).

On the other hand, while there is lots of quantitative evidence that ICE is detaining illegal immigrants with no otherwise criminal background (being in the U.S. illegally is still a crime), there is little evidence that ICE is detaining legal residents in vast numbers that immigration activists try to suggest.

👀 LOOKING AHEAD: Costa Mesa, which is nearly 36% Hispanic, experienced one of the biggest pro-Trump shifts in all of Orange County in the 2024 presidential elections, moving from Biden +14 to Harris +5. This was in no small part due to Trump’s improved performance with Hispanic voters.

Is ICE overstepping and pushing a “silent majority” of Hispanic voters who supported Trump away from him in the midterm elections? Or is it, like many things in politics, and particularly with Trump, just a lot of angry noise?

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...

🏃‍♂️ Republican-turned-Democrat Rick Caruso is reportedly considering a run for governor of California after Kamala Harris announced she would not be running.

☹️ A 15-year-old girl was stabbed to death in Westside Costa Mesa from what police are considering gang-related violence.

🗳️ Former OC Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steele, who narrowly lost to Democrat Derek Tran in 2024, announced she will not run again for her old seat in 2026.

🏘️ The Irvine city council voted to postpone a decision to turn the Oak Creek Golf Course into a new housing development until 2026.